NCAA Tournament First Round Historical Trends & Betting Tips

We are now just days away from the start of the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament, so we went back and analyzed how each seed has done in the first round over the last 10 years.

Play-in Game Trends

We also took a look at the play-in games since 2001, which in the past has been just one game on the Tuesday of the first week between the 64th and 65th seeds in the entire tournament. With the field expanding to 68 teams this year though, there are now four play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The favorites have gone 6-4 straight up in the play-in games the last 10 years, but they are just 4-5-1 against the spread with a slim average winning margin of +2.4 points. Now the play-in winners have never gone on to win in the main bracket of 64 teams, but they have gone a respectable 4-6 ATS vs. the top seeds.

Top Seeds Only 52% ATS

Most people know that a one seed has never lost outright in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and the average winning margin for the 40 top seed winners over the last 10 years has been +26.4 points. However, the top seeds are only 20-18-2, 52.6 percent ATS in Round One obviously due to inflated lines. The closest call for a one seed the last 10 years came when the Pittsburgh Panthers defeated East Tennessee State by 10 points in 2009.

#2 Seeds 45% ATS L10 Years

Two seeds are 39-1 straight up in the first round the past decade, with the only loser coming when Hampton shocked Iowa State back in 2001. The two seeds have been worse bets than the one seeds in Round One, going 18-22, 45.0 percent ATS despite a good average winning margin of +15.8 points. Besides Iowa State’s loss, the narrowest escape by a two seed came in a one-point win by Duke over Belmont in 2008 where the Blue Devils had to overcome a double-digit second half deficit.

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